The expected dynamics of the wind conditions in the West Iberian nearshore, in the context of the climate change

The target area of the present study is the western side of the Iberian coastal environment. Although not so high as in the North or the Baltic seas, the wind power potential can be considered significant in this nearshore. Furthermore, since this coastal environment is rich also in terms of other marine renewable energy resources, this represents a very good place for a joint exploitation of ocean energy. On the other hand, the climate change induces new configurations of the environmental matrix, with important impact on the coastal environment. From this perspective, the objective of the present work is to analyze the expected dynamics of the wind conditions in the west Iberian nearshore, in the context of the climate change. The study is focused on estimating the average and extreme wind conditions for the 30-year time interval 2021-2050. The climatic wind fields provided by the Global Change Assessment Model are considered for the near future period under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5. This scenario assumes that emissions will increase until 2040 and then decline. In parallel, an analysis of the historical wind data for the 30-year period 1990-2019 is also performed based on ERA5 data.