Urban Heat Island mitigation scenarios by Blue-Green Infrastructures modelling

The integrated planning of cities landscape and blue-green infrastructures (BGI) is an approach poised to play an increasingly positive role in climate change adaptation for the human population. Cities worldwide are rapidly expanding to accommodate the increasing urbanization. Phenomena including Urban Heat Island (UHI) and urban flooding are thus more likely – the occurrence and severity of which will be exacerbated by more extreme weather events. BGI offer a network of semi-natural engineering solutions for the sustainable mitigation of such threats to urban liveability. Scientists have developed scenario modeling tools capable of investigating either phenomenon. Yet their combination has been underexplored. In this study, we integrate, in a feedback loop, the inputs and outputs of two globally used BGI modeling tools (i.e., UrbanBEATS and TARGET) in one framework. UrbanBEATS allows us to optimally plan systems for managing stormwater quality and quantity based on user and policy requirements. The planned land cover is then used in TARGET, a one-dimensional urban climate model, to simulate the impact of BGI on the UHI effect. We apply this framework to the Municipality of Modena, a medium-sized municipality located in the northern part of Italy in the River Po Valley. The area is particularly suited for the study given the tendency towards increasing imperviousness and worsening summer heat events evolving to longer dry conditions and shorter but more intense rainfalls. The simplicity of the models and minimal data requirements guarantee widespread applicability of the framework by public authorities to plan the adoption of BGI and make cities more sustainable, liveable and resilient.