Predictive Transport Model of Bisphenol-A in Main Pampanga River

Phenolic endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) like Bisphenol-A (BPA) can interfere in the natural processes being done by the endocrine system of living organisms. To assess the effect of such contaminant in the Main Pampanga River of the Philippines, a transport model was developed using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) by US EPA. The flow inputs were estimated using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) by the US Army Corps of Engineers – Hydrologic Engineering Center. The following data were used to estimate the flows via HEC-HMS: IFSAR DEM, land cover, soil map, rainfall and weather data, streamflow data, and dam parameters. WASP Inputs included the following: physical and chemical properties, river cross-sectional profiles, boundary conditions, and loads. BPA concentrations from literature, population data, and waste generation data were used to estimate the BPA boundary concentrations and loads. The statistical parameters of the calibration and validation of the BPA transport model showed that the model is acceptable (NSE > 0.5) with good fit relative to observed data points (R-squared > 0.8). The PBIAS values are also between -25 and +25, thus satisfying the criteria for model accuracy. Acknowledgment This study is funded by the CHED-PCARI Project entitled “Developing Information Infrastructure for Managing Antibiotics and Endocrine Disrupting Substances in Pampanga River Basin and its Coastal Environs: Maps, Transport Models, and Bioindicators of Ecological and Public Health Risks”, which is also called as Pampanga River Basin (PRB) Project.