Climate change, overheating and public health: analysis of dynamic and correlations in EU regions

An intense concern about global warming and increased temperatures as a result of climate change has been observed worldwide during the last decades. The need for cooling expressed in Cooling Degree Days (CDD) at the EU level has increased by 169.8% since 1980. Extreme temperatures, intense heatwaves, and other natural disasters have hit European cities recently and have led to increased fatalities, becoming a significant hazard for a vulnerable population. Even if the consequences of climate change on human health are generally known, there is a gap in the quantification of this impact based on specific geographic and climate characteristics. This paper aims to quantify the impact through the analysis of overheating indicators and mortality rates and to identify correlations between these two variables. Then, it develops typologies of cities and regions based on their correlation levels and their specific characteristics to evaluate which of them are more vulnerable to climate change. Through this process, useful knowledge for policymakers, which will plan future climate change adaptation strategies, could be produced. Results showed that the correlations between overheating and mortality are strong, especially for landlocked regions with continental climates and for highly urbanised areas. R-squared values for most of the regions were high, especially for the period 2014-2019 and especially for countries that registered lower energy consumption climatic corrected for space cooling, possibly as a result of energy poverty. Findings showed that policies for regions with the above-mentioned characteristics should be strengthened in the short-term future.