Precipitation variability, trends and extremes for the region of the Arabian Peninsula

The Arabian Peninsula is generally known as a region characterized by low annual precipitation amounts and a great seasonal and spatial variability. However, its location and geomorphological characteristics lead to diverse climatic conditions in different sub-regions and smaller scales. At the same time, extreme rainfall events and floods often pose a threat to human life and activities. Therefore, a better understanding of the spatiotemporal features of precipitation is more than necessary. Towards this way a thirty-year (1986-2015) climatic analysis has been prepared with the aid of the state-of-the-art numerical modeling system RAMS/ICLAMS. The model output has been extensively evaluated against in situ measurements and satellite records revealing a good behavior. The analysis consists of three main parts; the mean climatic characteristics, the rainfall trends and the analysis of extremes. The last are studied employing the principles of the extreme value theory, taking into consideration both the duration and the intensity of the rainfall events. Among the main findings, the spatial distribution of the precipitation trends showed insignificant differences for the examined period. Furthermore, it was found that the eastern and the top half parts of the Arabian Peninsula presented the lowest risk regarding extreme events. Apart from the pure scientific interest, the findings can be quite useful in different sectors such as civil protection, constructions and reinsurance.