Climate change impact on river assimilative capacity: a case study application of water related climatic indicators

In this investigation, we use climatic, water-related indicators to evaluate the impact of climate change on the assimilative capacity of the Asopos River, Central Greece. Indicators were developed and organised under the SWICCA climate service (http://swicca.eu), which aims to develop and showcase a Water Management Information Service for the Copernicus Climate Change Service based, among others, on real case studies and end-users. River flow indicators are the core data for evaluating the assimilative capacity of the Asopos River under different scenarios regarding average flow conditions. Assimilative capacity was evaluated for 6 heavy metals, namely Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn. Socioeconomic indicators (GDP and Land Use) were also utilized to incorporate changes of economic activities in the assessment. Climate impact indicators are free of the need for laborious processing. They cannot cover all aspects of local analysis needs but, combined with local information, they are key-data for integrated climate change impact investigations. Results from 226 scenarios of circulation, regional and impact models combinations as well as industrial activity evolution, indicate for the majority of the scenarios, a small impact on the river’s assimilative capacity, associated with climate change, while industrial activity evolution could have a significant effect.