An Ignition Probability Index for the early detection of wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean region

Wildfires continue to form a major disturbance factor in Mediterranean ecosystems, often associated with significant loss of properties and human lives. Fast detection and suppression within the first minutes after ignition constitute one of the pillars for successful wildfire management and prevention of its catastrophic consequences. The current study, which is funded by the Interreg V-B “Balkan-Mediterranean 2014-2020” project “SFEDA”, aims to develop a Fire Ignition Probability Index (IPI) which will be integrated in an automatic fire detection system composed by optical and thermal land cameras and UAV. The IPI index will be calculated based on the pyric history, the anthropogenic influence and the simulated fire behavior in a study areas in Southern Greece. The pyric history will be represented by point data and through a Kernel Density Estimation will calculate a risk factor. The anthropogenic influence will be estimated based on an inverse relationship with the Euclidean distance from roads and settlements. Finally, fire behavior will be calculated using fire simulation models and data on fuel properties, estimated using state of the art remote sensing methods and field data. The integration of the IPI in the automatic fire detection system is expected to form a significant contribution to its improved accuracy.